Overshoot - What does it mean to exceed 1.5°C
Tuesday, 8th November 2022
The Session addresses the concept of overshoot - exceeding then returning to or below a level of global warming - in the context of the long term global temperature goal. Overshoot in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) cuts across all aspects of the Climate Change Assessment of Climate Responses, Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation. Presentations from authors of the three IPCC Working Groups will discuss how overshoot has been assessed from a conceptual perspective, in future climate and socio-economic scenarios, the implications for climate, including extremes, and for natural and human systems, and the implications for policy development. The session will include an exchange with IPCC authors and policymakers on the state of knowledge, the gaps and needs to inform policy development and the UNFCCC process.
Carolina ADLER
Universität Bern Geographisches Institut
Richard A. BETTS
Met Office Hadley Centre and University of Exeter
Katherine CALVIN
NASA
Jan Fuglestvedt
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo (CICERO)
Oliver GEDEN
German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP)
Christopher JONES
Met Office Hadley Centre
Shobha Maharaj
Terraformation
Anna Pirani
WG1 TSU
Joanna Post
Andy REISINGER
Sonia Seneviratne
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
Christopher Trisos
University of Cape Town
Overshoot – What does it mean to Exceed and Return to 1.5°C
Jan Fuglestvedt
Returning from an overshoot of 1.5C global warming: implications for the IPCC “Reasons For Concern”
Richard Betts and Carolina Adler
Overshoot in Modelled Pathways
Kate Calvin
Earth System Climate Response
Chris Jones and Sonia Seneviratne
Overshoot Risks and Implications for Adaptation
Shobha Maharaj and Chris Trisos
Overshoot - Closing (personal) Thoughts
Andy Reisinger
