Overshoot - What does it mean to exceed 1.5°C
Tuesday, 8th November 2022

The Session addresses the concept of overshoot - exceeding then returning to or below a level of global warming - in the context of the long term global temperature goal. Overshoot in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) cuts across all aspects of the Climate Change Assessment of Climate Responses, Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation. Presentations from authors of the three IPCC Working Groups will discuss how overshoot has been assessed from a conceptual perspective, in future climate and socio-economic scenarios, the implications for climate, including extremes, and for natural and human systems, and the implications for policy development. The session will include an exchange with IPCC authors and policymakers on the state of knowledge, the gaps and needs to inform policy development and the UNFCCC process.

Speakers
Carolina  ADLER
Carolina ADLER

Universität Bern Geographisches Institut
Richard A.  BETTS
Richard A. BETTS

Met Office Hadley Centre and University of Exeter
Katherine  CALVIN
Katherine CALVIN

NASA
Jan  Fuglestvedt
Jan Fuglestvedt

Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo (CICERO)
Oliver  GEDEN
Oliver GEDEN

German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP)
Christopher  JONES
Christopher JONES

Met Office Hadley Centre
Shobha  Maharaj
Shobha Maharaj

Terraformation
Anna  Pirani
Anna Pirani

WG1 TSU
Joanna  Post
Joanna Post

Andy  REISINGER
Andy REISINGER

Sonia  Seneviratne
Sonia Seneviratne

Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
Christopher  Trisos
Christopher Trisos

University of Cape Town
Slides
Overshoot – What does it mean to Exceed and Return to 1.5°C

Jan Fuglestvedt

Returning from an overshoot of 1.5C global warming: implications for the IPCC “Reasons For Concern”

Richard Betts and Carolina Adler

Overshoot in Modelled Pathways

Kate Calvin

Earth System Climate Response

Chris Jones and Sonia Seneviratne

Overshoot Risks and Implications for Adaptation

Shobha Maharaj and Chris Trisos

Overshoot - Closing (personal) Thoughts

Andy Reisinger

Videos

IPCC
Social Media Channels