SPM.1: Figure 1 of the Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC’s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C
The IPCC Special Report on 1.5℃, released in December 2018, presents the most up-to-date research on the science around the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement: to pursue efforts to limit the increase in global average temperature to below 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels.
Here we present an interactive version of figure SPM.1 in the Summary for Policymakers to help users understand how cumulative emissions of CO2 and other climate drivers determine the probability of limiting warming to 1.5℃.
Click and drag the blue dot to vary the year of net-zero CO2 emissions. Click and drag the purple dot to vary the global energy imbalance in 2100 due to other climate drivers, called the non-CO2 radiative forcing. Grey lines on the top panel show how the likely range of human-induced warming responds to those inputs using a simple climate model and the same methodology as the original figure.
SPM.1: Figure 1 of the Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC’s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C.
a) Observed global temperature change and modeled responses to stylized anthropogenic emissions and forcing pathways
Interactive designed and produced by Stuart Jenkins
and Myles Allen, Department of Physics and Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, with support from the UK Natural
Environment Research Council.
SPM.1 Interactive: How to use
This interactive allows the user to change the date of net-zero CO2 emissions (the time at which anthropogenic emissions of CO2 reach zero) and the value of the end-of-century non-CO2 radiative forcing (the energy imbalance in the climate system attributable to pollutants other than CO2) and see the globally averaged temperature response.
Set the position of the blue dot on panel b to set the net-zero date for CO2 emissions, and set the position of the purple dot on panel d to set the non-CO2 radiative forcing in 2100.
For further information on the design of the figure please refer to the IPCC Special Report on the Global Warming of 1.5°C.